About Our Project

Abstract

We have studied the long term variation of various solar parameters and aimed at making a predictive model for solar flares using parameters that influence solar flare activity, and also to find a correlation between different parameters of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The analysis of the predictive model was performed an R-square value of 0.79 and RMSE value of 2.9653 was obtained which pertains to the fact that the model fits. A detailed correlative study has been performed using the monthly data among a variety of solar activity parameters like CME width, Number of Solar Flares, Linear Speed of CMEs, Solar Flare Index, 2nd order Initial and Final Speeds of CMEs and Total Solar Irradiance. The Correlation analysis was performed by studying the Spearman coefficient obtained by plotting and curve fitting graphs for various CME parameters with respect to Sunspot Number ranges and Magnetic Flux differences. It was concluded that the relation between the parameters and the Sunspot Area was an inverse relation where the coefficient values with the MF difference were negative and for the parameters that didn’t yield a negative coefficient was an effect of magnetic flux and the anomalies observed were due to lack of data.

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